ATP/WTA Tennis Market Outright Tracker 2017

A tracker charting results in the outright markets, based upon the recommended betting selections suggested in my articles.

Sometimes, I manage my selections throughout the tournament by trading positions based upon the week’s results to that point (corresponding with my opening thoughts written in the article).  The ‘Return’ figure in the tables represents the pure total of Profit/Loss.

ATP Sydney 250 and Auckland 250 

https://gavinnightmair.wordpress.com/2017/01/08/atp-auckland-and-atp-sydney-preview/ 

Sydney 250 Results

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Sydney 250
Thiem 3 3.7 -3
Troicki 1.8 8.54 -1.8
Kuznetsov 1 25 -1
Muller 1 23.5 22.5
Overall      

+16.7

3 of the 4 players made the semi finals including the long odds duo of Kuznetsov and Muller, enabling a very profitable tournament.

Auckland 250 Results

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Auckland 250 Ferrer 3 5.32 -3
  Isner 3 7.03 -3
  Sock 3 5.5 13.5
Overall       +7.5

Sock went on to win the tournament.  I retrieved my original stake before his semi final match with Steve Johnson, and had a decent profit on this market when he won the title.

Australian Open ATP 2017

https://gavinnightmair.wordpress.com/2017/01/15/atp-australian-open-preview/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Australian Open Murray 5 2.84 -5
  Kyrgios 1 60 -1
  Bautista-Agut 1 220 -1
Overall       -7

Both Murray and Djokovic lost as sub 1.1 favourites in the first week of the Australian Open in a very disappointing week for all outright backers, the majority of which had backed either one or the other with reasonable justification.

Kyrgios came into the tournament with an injury and promised much after walloping his opposition for the first five sets he played before he suddenly went haywire with a likely reason being an underlying knee injury.

Bautista Agut put in a good effort and tested Raonic for a couple of sets in his R16 match, but ultimately fell short.  His price did fall in the markets to odds of 50, and had he overcame Raonic then that would have been a nice time to cash in.

WTA Taipei International 2017

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/01/wta-taiwan-open-hard-to-stop-svitolina-in-taipei/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Taipei Svitolina 3 3.4 7.2
  Doi 1 33 -1
Overall       +6.2

First article for WeLoveBetting.co.uk promoted Elina Svitolina as the likely winner.  After being tested by Ons Jabeur in the quarter final, Svitolina went on to easily defeat Minella in the semi final and Peng in the final.

Misaki Doi made it to the quarter final, but was outdone at that stage by a powerful Lucie Safarova performance.

ATP Quito 250 2017

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/02/atp-quito-open-two-altitude-specialists-that-cant-be-ignored/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Quito Bellucci 2 10 -2
  Lorenzi 1 7 -1
Overall       -3

Damn you Victor Estrella-Burgos!  The man from the Dominican Republic beat not one, but both of my outright picks last week.  He did so despite being rather long odds against on each occasion.

I am not so surprised that he beat Bellucci, who he frustrates the life out of in such awkward playing conditions.  I was however disappointed that Lorenzi never got over the finishing line.

My statistics suggested that Lorenzi had the best results at altitude of any player in the draw, and he held a winning head to head record over Estrella-Burgos going into the final.  Lorenzi led by a set and a break, and also held a match point in the 3rd set.  This sort of thing happens sometimes in tennis.

ATP Rotterdam 500

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Rotterdam A.Zverev 1 13 -1
Overall       -1

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/02/atp-rotterdam-zverev-capable-of-back-to-back-success/

Unfortunately, after his victory in Montpellier, Alexander Zverev was unable to maintain his level of the week before.  He lost in the first round to a rejuvenated Dominic Thiem, who looked in better form than of late and produced some nice tennis.

The Rotterdam draw looks to be open.

ATP Delray Beach 250

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Delray Beach Sock E/W 1 5.125 4.125
  Raonic 1 2.5 -1
Overall       +3.125

This was a pleasing week for me as both Milos Raonic and Jack Sock made it to the final.  Sock claimed the title as Raonic was unable to take to court due to a hamstring injury.

My preview for welovebetting.co.uk can be read in the following link – http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/02/delray-beach-open-raonic-worthy-favourite-in-florida/

ATP Acapulco 500

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/02/atp-acapulco-favourable-conditions-for-nicely-priced-novak/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Acapulco Djokovic 1 2.63 -1
Overall       -1

If I had followed my own advice then perhaps Rafa each-way would have been the play, but as he and Djokovic attract the obvious betting attention I opted instead for Djokovic to come through against players that appeared to be good match ups for him on paper, or that he holds a strong head to head record against.

Djokovic was stopped at the quarterfinal stage by Nick Kyrgios, who was undaunted by his established opposition in what was a first career meeting.  Sam Querrey was the beneficiary of Djokovic’s unscheduled departure and he defeated Nadal in the final.

ATP Indian Wells 1000

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/03/atp-indian-wells-open-draw-points-to-big-priced-picks/

A very nice return from Sock winning his quarter.  Nadal was a poor selection… and Goffin did not play well enough to take advantage of the cakewalk draw that had emerged.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Indian Wells Goffin 2 23 -2
  Nadal 2 11 -2
  Sock 2 19 36
Overall +32

ATP Miami 1000

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/03/atp-miami-home-comforts-could-be-the-ideal-tonic-for-nishikori/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Miami Nishikori 3 8.5 -3
  Kyrgios 3 4 9
  Thiem 3 5.5 -3
  Dimitrov 3 5.5 -3
Overall       0

A passable week as Nick Kyrgios emerges from his Quarter in Miami.  The Australian came through some tricky match ups against Ivo Karlovic and Alex Zverev, who had taken out the section favourite Stan Wawrinka.

Thiem and Dimitrov were hopeless, falling at the first gate with a couple of very disappointing performances.

Thiem responded to his poor play by smashing rackets during his defeat to Borna Coric.  It was one of those days for the Austrian.  Dimitrov was outplayed by Guido Pella…who went on to lose to Nicolas Mahut amplifying the missed opportunity by Dimitrov.

Nishikori, as is sadly often the case with the Japanese player, picked up an injury prior to his match with Fabio Fognini and he was not himself in a one sided loss to the Italian.

All in all another satisfactory week.

ATP Houston 250

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/04/atp-houston-verdasco-well-placed-to-win-again-in-houston/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Houston Verdasco 3 9 -3
  Young 1 26 -1
  Tiafoe 1 28 -1
Overall       -5

A disappointing week from Fernando Verdasco who was unable to get himself into the position to defeat a vulnerable Jack Sock by losing to Steve Johnson, a player that he is usually comfortable against.

Unfortunately, my two long shot picks failed to muster much of a challenge.  Not the best selections, but happy enough with the reasoning.

ATP Marrakech 250

https://gavinnightmair.wordpress.com/2017/04/11/atp-marrakech-250/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Marrakech Delbonis 2 9 -2
  K’schreiber 2 9.5 -2
Overall       -4

Phillip Kohlschreiber did well to take advantage of his draw by making it to the final.  However, when he got there as a heavy favourite he extremely disappointed.  Kohlschreiber failed to convert 5 match points, and blew numerous winning positions.

This is part and parcel of tennis however.  It happened also with Lorenzi in Quito.  A very positive start to the season could be even better so it stings a little, but my methods did provide another finalist so my confidence remains.

No blog for Monte Carlo next week as I’m going on holiday.

ATP Barcelona 500

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/04/atp-barcelona-draw-points-to-thiem-making-final/

Dominic Thiem ensured another profitable week for my outright picks as he made the final in Barcelona.  Unfortunately in that final Thiem was demolished by the red hot Rafa Nadal so the Each Way selection locked in profit, but not the level of payday that could have been received had the Austrian come out on top.

Cuevas on the other hand failed to defeat an inspired Karen Khachanov, who played his best tournament of the season to date.  Had Cuevas got through that match up he may well have gone on to win the quarter as the eventual winner was Horacio Zeballos who was the player to capitalise on the demise of both Cuevas and David Goffin.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Barcelona Cuevas 3 4.5 -3
  Thiem 3 9 EW/ 2.5 3.5
Overall       +0.5

ATP Munich 250

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/05/atp-munich-home-boy-deserves-your-backing/ 

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Munich Fognini 3 13 -3
  A. Zverev 3 6 15
Overall       +12

When Fabio Fognini sulked around the court in a heavy defeat to Guido Pella, a player that he got the better of only a few weeks previously, I feared this would be a bad week.

Thankfully Alex Zverev was in the mood to perform in front of his hometown crowd.  As I expected in the preview Zverev was made to work hard by his compatriot Jan-Lennard Struff.  The younger German held his nerve that bit better though in what was his toughest test of the week.

ATP Istanbul 250

https://gavinnightmair.wordpress.com/2017/05/02/atp-istanbul-250/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Istanbul Basilashvili 3 26 E/W -3
  Cilic 3 5 12
Overall       +9

Basilashvili outplayed Karen Khachanov for the most part but it was a losing effort as the more passive but consistent Russian tempted a few too many errors from the racket of his opponent.  Had Basilashvili caught steam, which I can see him doing at some point in the not so distant future, then he will be tough to stop.

Marin Cilic was in fine form all week.  He toughed out the pesky Diego Schwartzman who threatened a major comeback from a double break down in the second set.  The Croatian found the mental stability that has been lacking in his game this season to survive the semifinal.

Against Milos Raonic in the final Cilic was a clear winner but had to work hard against an opponent that gives very little away.

ATP Estoril 250

https://gavinnightmair.wordpress.com/2017/05/02/atp-estoril-250/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Estoril Edmund 3 13 -3
  Carreno Busta 3 8 21
Overall       +18

Pablo Carreno Busta dominated this tournament handily beating three veteran Spanish claycourters in the form of Tommy Robredo, Nicolas Almagro and David Ferrer before triumphing over surprise finalist Gilles Muller, who was the one to take advantage of the weak draw that I hoped could be the making of Kyle Edmund.

Edmund fell early to a player I had very little information about prior to the week starting, but he can be excused due to the probable injury he is suffering that has withdrawn him from Madrid this coming week.

ATP Madrid 1000

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/05/atp-madrid-time-to-restore-faith-in-world-number-1/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Madrid Murray 3 8 -3
  Kyrgios 3 6.5 -3
Overall       -6

Not the best week of the season for me.

I read the tea leaves wrong on Murray who I thought had a good opportunity and favourable draw to build some form at an event where he has found recent success.  He performed very poorly against Borna Coric, who if Murray was at his best shouldn’t have much of a match up issue with.

As for Kyrgios… he is something of an enigma.  The guy possesses all the talent in the world and showed that in his first two rounds where he didn’t try a leg, but still comfortably progressed.  That doesn’t work against Nadal who is more vulnerable in Madrid than anywhere else during the clay events, and against whom Kyrgios can realistically overcome in the conditions.

Kyrgios said after his defeat to Nadal, “I just haven’t been in the general gist of being a tennis player. I haven’t been training. I’ve just been doing nothing really. I wasn’t expecting to beat him at all tonight, to be honest.”

Thanks Nick…

ATP Rome 1000

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/05/atp-rome-choose-stan-to-challenge-rafa-dominance/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Rome Wawrinka 3 15 -3
  Raonic 2.5 6.5 -2.5
  Fognini 2.5 9.5 -2.5
Overall       -8

So ends a difficult and disappointing few weeks.  With Rafael Nadal dominating all before him during the clay swing it is not so easy to find value in the outright markets.

This week I fancied Stan Wawrinka to produce a challenge but he was thwarted by the in form John Isner, who has been serving brilliantly this week and is a nightmare to play when he finds his best level from the service line.

I was right to oppose Andy Murray in his quarter but I was wrong not to back Wünderkind Alexander Zverev as he backed up some strong recent results.  I thought that perhaps it was too much too soon for Zverev given his run of victories over the past couple of weeks, and he looked to be in a bit of bother against Kevin Anderson in his first match.

However, once he found his feet in the tournament he provoked the insanity inside of Fabio Fognini to reveal itself.  It was then no surprise to see him have a better clay game than Milos Raonic in their quarterfinal.

ATP Lyon 250 and Geneva 250

https://gavinnightmair.wordpress.com/2017/05/22/atp-geneva-250-and-lyon-250-outright-previews/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Lyon Basilashvili 1 41 -1
  Khachanov 1 30 -1
  Chung 1 23 -1
Overall       -3
Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Geneva Sousa 1 41 -1
  Kuznetsov 1 26 -1
Overall       -2

A couple of small loses for the outrights last week.  The idea was to look for long odds value to take advantage of potential complacency from top players, whose motivations in tournament’s the week prior to the start of a Grand Slam is often very doubtful.

I advised in the blog to manage the selections throughout the week.  There was an opportunity for a profitable trade due to the performances of Basilashvili in Lyon and Kuznetsov in Geneva, who both made semi finals.

However, with the minimal stakes in the markets and the fact that both were still priced in the double digits before they took to the court in their respective semi final matches, there was no worthwhile profit to be made in the situation.

Basilashvili took Tsonga to three sets but failed to take chances when he had them and Tsonga was reasonably comfortable by the end.  In retrospect Tsonga, who went on to win the tournament, had plenty to play for in Lyon having had few matches throughout the clay swing.

Kuznetsov was routinely dispatched by Wawrinka, who was worth opposing at the start of the week.  Had he been made to work by an opponent it would have been quite possible that Wawrinka wouldn’t have fancied the task ahead of him.

 

WTA Roland Garros

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/05/french-open-muguruza-can-reign-again-at-roland-garros/ 

The most open Grand Slam ever delivered a big return when the unseeded Jelena Ostapenko came through a quarter featuring several big name players to make the semi finals at odds of 14/1.

Ostapenko showed signs of her potential in the weeks leading up to the French Open when she made the Premier Final at Charleston.  In Paris she outplayed Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki, both times as an outsider, to set up a date with Timea Bacsinszky for a spot in a maiden Grand Slam final.

The other selections were unsuccessful.  My outright pick Garbine Muguruza looked good value after the first few rounds when her price halved following strong performances against Francesca Schiavone and Annett Kontaveit.  However, against a boisterous home crowd the Spaniard wilted against the well supported Kiki Mladenovic, who smartly capitalised upon her opponents emotions.

Kiki Bertens looked tired from several weeks of deep runs as she poorly fell to Cici Bellis, but the good news is that it opened the door for Ostapenko to take advantage in the same quarter.

I backed Daria Kasatkina with the notion that Simona Halep’s medical condition was inadequate.  However, the Romanian has been known to exaggerate her physical state in the past and perhaps I should have known better.  Kasatkina served for the second set against Halep when they met in the Round of 32, but she lost her head quickly allowing Halep to escape fairly comfortably.

In the bottom quarter was Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who looked to have a smooth draw on paper.  Unfortunately, the Russian fell to Veronica Cepede Royg at an early stage, and will likely regret failing to take advantage of her fortunate bracketing.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Roland Garros Ostapenko 3 15 42
  Bertens 3 8 -3
  Kasatkina 3 15 -3
  Pavlych’ova 3 9 -3
  Muguruza 3 13 -3
Overall       30

WTA s’Hertogenbosch International

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/06/wta-hertogenbosch-coco-nuts-about-shertogenbosch/

A poor start to the grass court season as Coco Vandeweghe was very disappointing in her first round exit to Carina Witthoeft.  The American sprayed many errors from her racquet and didn’t seem particularly animated about her poor performance.

I think she has the potential to win Wimbledon this season, and may do so, but this was an unconvincing start to her grass court campaign.

The third quarter looks particularly strong.  I think Annett Kontaveit has a good chance for a deep run and can take advantage of Coco’s defeat.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Hertogenbosch Vandeweghe 3 6 -3
Overall       -3

WTA Nottingham International

https://gavinnightmair.wordpress.com/2017/06/12/wta-nottingham-international-2017-preview/

Nottingham didn’t go to plan.  Alison Riske blew a lead and hit over 50 unforced errors in losing to Magdalena Rybarikova.

I had hoped Barty would be able to play Johanna Konta far better than she did.  The Brit may be a high ranked player but her movement can be exploited on this surface and Barty’s arsenal was in my theory able to do that.  Unfortunately, the Barty serve has far too many dips and top players don’t need a big invitation to spoil your party.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Nottingham Barty 3 11 -3
  Riske 3 13 -3
Overall       -6

 

ATP s’Hertogenbosch 250

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/06/atp-hertogenbosch-back-grass-court-specialists-in-the-netherlands/

A good week overall thanks to the fine return on the men’s side.

My strategy to back three grass court specialists, all of which are a point or two away from being able to beat the other paid dividends.  Ivo Karlovic and Gilles Muller contested the final, with the Luxemburger taking the title in two tiebreak sets.

Mahut underperformed drastically, losing to his fellow French veteran Julien Benneteau.  I wonder if his age is starting to show in singles.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
s’Hertog… Mahut 3 13 -3
  Muller 3 11 30
  Karlovic 3 11 -3
Overall       24

 

ATP Queens 500

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/06/atp-queens-raonic-on-course-for-another-final-at-queens-club/

Queens Club did not go as I envisioned it.  It probably didn’t go in the way many people envisioned it.

We were dealt a blow when Nick Kyrgios took a nasty fall in the first set of his match with Donald Young that caused him to retire.

Last season Milos Raonic was exceptional under pressure, winning plenty of narrow contests displaying aggression and confidence in tie breaks, or a strong focus on break points.  In losing to Thanasi Kokkinakis in two tiebreaks, Raonic showed none of these qualities.   The Canadian really needs to play big points well with his style of play.

The draw looks open now and with the addition of Andy Murray’s early exit, those who gambled on the likes of Cilic or Querrey at big prices look to be in a good position for the week ahead.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Queens Kyrgios 3 17 -3
  Raonic 3 7 -3
Overall       -6

ATP Eastbourne 250

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/06/tennis-big-priced-outsiders-offer-value-week-before-wimbledon/

Eastbourne failed to deliver, but after rain interrupted play during the first couple of days, the tournament becomes more of a lottery.

Players are being asked to play two matches a day, and in an event where only 250 ranking points are available, and days before the start of Wimbledon it is not really a surprise to see some players – especially those carrying a seeding at Wimbledon (as my two selections for this tournament do) – fall at an early stage.

I feel in normal conditions the two selections would have offered value, in a market that has Novak Djokovic way, way too short.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Eastbourne Querrey 3 17 -3
  M. Zverev 2.634 41 -2.634
Overall       -5.634

ATP Antalya 250

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/06/tennis-big-priced-outsiders-offer-value-week-before-wimbledon/

I selected poorly with Viktor Troicki and Joao Sousa.

Sousa is in rotten form, and I thought I had seen a competitive level in him at Halle that stood him in good stead for a run in this weak field.  As it turned out, he was easily knocked out immediately by Radu Albot.

The Troicki bet looked to be off to a fine start when he won his opening set by a double break margin.  However, he quickly unravelled against Carlos Berlocq, a player that has no business appearing on a grass court.  If Troicki was motivated he would have won that match but because of events at home, the gamble backfired.

Adrian Mannarino gave us a run for our money by making the final in Antalya.  However, when he got there he produced the feeblest of performances against an opponent that had never won a tour title and that Mannarino had defeated only a month or two beforehand.  I doubt Mannarino will ever win a tour title.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Antalya Mannarino 3 17 -3
  Troicki 3 15 -3
  Sousa 3 34 -3
Overall       -9

WTA Eastbourne Premier

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/06/wta-eastbourne-pliskova-ready-to-dominate-on-grass/

Cibulkova was the first to fall, lamely losing to Heather Watson.  The 2016 champion continued her very poor form and it was a disappointment that she could not escape from her first round match.

Angelique Kerber was next to go, losing a match to a fired up Johanna Konta.  I still feel that Kerber will hold the advantage should these two players meet again at Wimbledon.

A profitable week was secured by Caroline Wozniacki making it through her quarter at the expense of Simona Halep who crumbled from a break up in the second set, as she did in the French Open final.  The Romanian can’t have much love for the sport right now.

Wozniacki made it to the final, where she was beaten by Karolina Pliskova, our outright selection.  Pliskova overturned a 4/1 head to head record in favour of the Dane to convincingly gun to victory.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Eastbourne Ka. Pliskova 3 6.5  16.5
  Kerber 3 4.5  -3
  Cibulkova 3 10 -3
  Wozniacki 3 7  18
Overall        28.5

 

WTA Wimbledon

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/07/2017-wimbledon-winners-this-is-who-you-need-to-back-before-the-action-starts/

Wimbledon turned out to be a big disappointment, but I was very close to making significant profit on a couple of the outrights.

I lost faith in Karolina Pliskova’s chances when I saw the draw.  She was bracketed in alongside high calibre opponents and whilst she was fancied to come through against Magdalena Rybarikova, it wasn’t a major upset for several reasons.

We were a little bit unlucky with Lucie Safarova.  The Czech started the tournament in fine fettle, but a devastating injury to her doubles partner was the catalyst for her early defeat to Shelby Rogers.

Coco Vandeweghe was at one point the second favourite to win the title, falling to less than half the price that I originally backed her.  She was drawn to face Rybarikova in the quarterfinals, who I thought would have lost a fair time before that.  The Slovakian player is a nightmare match-up for a ball basher with suspect movement and so it told in their quarterfinal.

Simona Halep was a couple of points away from victory against Johanna Konta, but nervously contemplated the finishing line and was edged out in 3 sets.

Overall a disappointing Wimbledon, but it had looked very promising.  Close but no cigar.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Wimbledon Vandeweghe 3 23 -3
  Ka. Pliskova 3 7 -3
  Safarova 3 10 -3
  Vandeweghe 3 8.5 -3
  Halep 3 9 -3
Overall       -15

ATP Wimbledon

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/07/2017-wimbledon-winners-this-is-who-you-need-to-back-before-the-action-starts-2/

The men’s event offered a profitable return.

I analysed that both Andy Murray and Rafa Nadal looked vulnerable in their quarter based on their form and tournament history.

In Murray’s quarter my selection of Jó-Wilfried Tsonga came a cropper to eventual quarter winner Sam Querrey deep in the 5th set.

Cilic did his part though by taking advantage of Rafa Nadal’s exit at the hands of Gilles Muller, by outlasting the Luxembourger in the following round.

Overall a profitable week on the men’s side, but down overall for the tournament due to the WTA bets nearly, but not quite landing.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Wimbledon Cilic 3 5 12
  Tsonga 3 12 -3
Overall       9

 

ATP Hamburg 500

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/07/atp-hamburg-three-to-follow-at-rothenbaum-this-week/

Lucky Loser Leonardo Mayer won in Hamburg at an event notable in its history for frequency of unlikely winners.

I chose the wrong outliers this week with the best performer being Federico Delbonis, who I swerved at 50/1 pre tournament.  Delbonis made the semifinals, losing to the aforementioned champion.

Diego Schwartzman made the quarter final but was ousted by Florian Mayer.  Benoit Paire had a characteristically temperamental defeat to Nicolas Kicker, and Nikoloz Basilashvili showed only in spells against David Ferrer what he is capable of.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Hamburg Schwartzman 3 9 -3
  Paire 3 17 -3
  Basilashvili 3 51 -3
Overall       -9

ATP Gstaad 250

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/07/atp-gstaad-italian-wildcard-could-hold-all-the-aces-at-altitude/

Fognini landed the Gstaad title to make for a profitable week.

It was almost a dream situation when Robin Haase competed in a very winnable semi-final against Yannick Hanfmann, but the Dutchman was unable to take four match points.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Gstaad Fognini 3 9 24
  Haase 3 29 -3
Overall       21

ATP US Open

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/08/us-open-zverev-can-herald-the-march-of-the-new-generation/

My men’s draw picks are all out after the 2nd round.  I expected this US Open to be very open, but it has come at a cost as all three of my selected challengers fell at a stage before I expected.

There were some very long prices available  (significantly shorted by now in some cases) in the outright markets and there is a possibility of a some surprise names featuring in the latter stages.

From the candidates available the three I selected I felt had a strong upside and could be relied upon to make a run if they played to their potential.  However, this was not to be and instead the US Open on the men’s side ends disappointingly early.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
US Open M Dimitrov Q1 3 5 -3
  Tsonga Q4 3 5 -3
  A. Zverev 3 6.5 -3
Overall       -9

 

WTA US Open

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/08/us-open-controversial-sharapova-looks-overpriced-in-new-york/

The women’s draw certainly went better than the madness that was the men’s event, and at one point it looked possible that three of the picks could win through.

The most disappointing result was Caroline Wozniacki who fell early to Ekaterina Makarova, who the Dane had never lost to in seven previous meetings.  Makarova characteristically was unable to take advantage of her win by losing in the next round.  There was good reason to oppose Garbine Muguruza in that quarter and after Wozniacki’s early defeat I was not surprised to see Venus Williams make it to the semi final with the veteran saving her best for the Grand Slams this year.

In the first quarter I backed Karolina Pliskova at the skinny price of 2/1.  Her draw looked very good on paper, but she was hampered by an injury throughout and was well beaten in the quarterfinal by Coco Vandeweghe.  Pliskova was odds on to make the semi final.

Maria Sharapova was quick to show the value in her selection by marching past world number 2 Simona Halep in the first round.  The Russian went from 8/1 to Evens on the strength of that performance.  She eventually lose to Anastasija Sevastova, who if Sharapova was in peak form you would imagine wouldn’t be problematic for her.  Unsurprisingly the high level of tennis that was required consistently against a patient and crafty opponent wasn’t quite there and on reflection it was perhaps too much to ask for Sharapova to win 5 matches and make a Grand Slam semi final at this point in her comeback.

The eventual winner of this quarter was Sloane Stephens, who I tipped but never backed in the preview.  I was worried that Stephens would crumble in the latter stages, and she survived through to the semifinal by wining a third set tiebreak against Sevastova.

Madison Keys did however bring home some return for our investment with her strong performance through to the semifinal, the highlights including tough fought but well earned victories over Elena Vesnina and Elina Svitolina.

As of the time of writing Keys is the outright favourite to win the US Open, but I am sceptical that she is deserving of her market position.

Overall, I am down for the mens and womens events combined, but this was mainly to do with the havoc caused on the men’s side of the draw.  Roll on 2018 when hopefully the Big 4 are all fit and some order is restored.

  Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
US Open W Ka Pliskova Q1 3 3 -3
  Keys Q2 3 5.5 13.5
  Wozniacki Q3 3 7 -3
  Sharapova Q4 3 9 -3
Overall       4.5

WTA Tokyo International

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2017/09/wta-tokyo-a-good-chance-nao-for-hibino/

Christina McHale gave us a good run for our money and disappointingly faded when in control of her semi final match with Zarina Diyas.  McHale was on the brink of leading by a double break in the final set.  McHale couldn’t quite wriggle away from Diyas despite leading in both the first and third set, and the Kazakh was the better player when the scoreboard was close.

Fortunately, I had opposed McHale in the match market against Diyas, but still I was disappointed with that ‘winner’.

Nao Hibino was a player I thought could exploit a weak quarter of the draw and I believe my thinking was right, as her first round opponent Miyu Kato made it through to the semi final.  My selections are information driven, and Kato had failed to ever beat Hibino in four career meetings and has far less favourable results than her compatriot – so there was no way I would have opted for her.

Shuai Zhang was another victim of Diyas.  The Kazakh really had me worried when she defeated Zhang – a top 30 hard court player who has been reasonably steady of late.

Qiang Wang was another disappointment.  She rather fluffed her lines against Jana Fett in the quarterfinals.  Fett had the bigger tennis but Wang had done a good job to tire her out.  Wang however lacked the mental composure to close out the match, match like McHale a day later.

Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
 Tokyo Int. Hibino 3 67 -3
  Zhang 3 9 -3
  McHale 3 26 -3
  Wang 3 17 -3
Overall       -12

 

As of 16th September 2017 – Total Return = +109.39 Units, excluding stakes.

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7 thoughts on “ATP/WTA Tennis Market Outright Tracker 2017

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