I don’t have time to make a long preview like I usually do but having prepared my tournament spreadsheets it is clear to me what the correct strategy and selections should be this week.
Both Geneva and Lyon are fronted by highly ranked players, which a week out from the start of the clay court Grand Slam is cause for caution. Whilst Stan Wawrinka won the tournament in Geneva last year, I can’t imagine him raising his game for a battle should it be required.
A similar rule applies to the likes of Kei Nishikori, Juan Martin del Potro, Milos Raonic and Nick Kyrgios – all of whom could go deep next week with a decent draw. Whilst any of the players from that list could turn up and cruise through to the final, at very slim prices it isn’t a shrewd investment.
It is much better to side with players that are likely to be hungry this week. In my research for these tournaments I studied players that tend to string together some wins in the week before a slam. Two names stood out – Robin Haase – 28/1 in Geneva and Joao Sousa – 40/1 in Geneva.
In addition to these players I’m adding a few others at a long price to my portfolio. These are players that have either performed well during recent clay tournaments, or who I marked out in my research as potential 250 event winners.
At the high prices quoted I see no harm in chancing several with low stakes. Manage these selections throughout the week depending on how the draw unfolds.
Haase – 28/1 in Geneva
Kuznetsov – 25/1 in Geneva – Paddypower
Sousa – 40/1 in Geneva = Betfred
Basilashvili 40/1 in Lyon – Boylesports
Khachanov 29/1 in Lyon – Bet365
Chung 22/1 in Lyon – Bet365
Edits 09.42 on Tuesday morning
1) Haase out before bet could be placed.
2) Updated with odds backed on Tuesday morning.