ATP/WTA Tennis Market Outright Tracker 2018

A tracker charting results in the outright markets, based upon the recommended betting selections suggested in my articles.

Sometimes, I manage my selections throughout the tournament by trading positions based upon the week’s results to that point (corresponding with my opening thoughts written in the article).  The ‘Return’ figure in the tables represents the pure total of Profit/Loss.

 

WTA Australian Open 2018

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2018/01/australian-open-three-females-to-feature-prominently-in-melbourne/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
AO WTA V. Williams 2 40 -2
  Cibulkova EW 2 80 -2
  V. Williams Q3 3 9 -3
  Cibulkova Q4 3 17 -3
  Halep Q1 3 3.3 6.9
Overall       -3.1

It is disappointing that Venus and Cibulkova failed to get out of the starting blocks.  Both players were given difficult opening rounds, and had they got through them they had a bigger potential than the players they lost to to make a deep run in the tournament.  Williams’ conquerer Belinda Bencic fell in the second round, whilst Kaia Kanepi lost in the third round after beating Cibulkova.

With their failure it opened the door even further for an unproven player to break new ground at this highest level of event – Elise Mertens the surprise victor of the 3rd quarter could be backed at a pre-tournament outright price of 350, whilst Carla Suarez Navarro was the player that challenged Caroline Wozniacki for a semi final berth in the 4th quarter, having started at 475 outright.

There was value in choosing a longer odds alternative in the bottom half, however it wasn’t to be the two players I found it easiest to build a case for.

Simona Halep survived an epic match with Lauren Davis before comfortably overcoming two easier match ups for her in the shape of the not too dissimilar Naomi Osaka and Karolina Pliskova to emerge as the winner of the first Quarter.

Overall the outright returns are down from this tournament – with a lesson learned in not playing two very similar bets – Outright Each Ways and Quarter winners.  That strategy, more than anything else, stopped me from making a profit in the outright markets at this tournament.

 

Dubai WTA Premier

Screen Shot 2018-03-14 at 10.23.56

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Dubai Svitolina 5 10 40
Overall       40

Svitolina had a sticky moment against Qiang Wang but otherwise strolled to the title, dispatching a tired Daria Kasatkina in the final.  The prodigious Russian was the standout player that week, but to beat Svitolina you have to be in your best possible condition, which wasn’t possible for her.

 

Indian Wells WTA Premier Mandatory

Screen Shot 2018-03-15 at 20.12.36

Simon Halep’s draw looked easy on paper and it turned out to be that way in the end, although she was given a scare by both Caroline Dolehide and Petra Martic.  The world number one found a way to win these matches and despite her deficits she never really looked like losing in my opinion.

Karolina Pliskova eased her way through to a quarter final encounter with Naomi Osaka before the young Japanese wiped the floor with the world number 5.  Osaka has shown this week what she is capable of and it will be exciting to watch her have some big weeks this season and beyond.  Osaka can be erratic and I don’t find her yet a convincing proposition to win a Grand Slam title, although this week has certainly displayed that it will one day be within her power.  As for Pliskova, her game is very effective for the most part and she will continually give herself chances to progress through tournaments.  However, against elite opponents on all but a few surfaces she doesn’t have much of a chance as her movement is so easily exploitable.

I was keen to back Daria Kasatkina to get a result here before the draw had even been made.  Kasatkina looked to have stepped up a level in Dubai a few weeks ago, when through the inspiration of her coach she fought off both Johanna Konta and Garbine Muguruza with some career-best tennis.  Indian Wells is a tournament that plays to her strengths, as it reacts well to her rallying style – as a QF run in 2016 shows.  Therefore the combination of form and playing style made her an attractive betting proposition.  I was a little bit worried when I saw she had been drawn in Caroline Wozniacki’s quarter and although my fears were allayed as the tournament progressed and both had displayed their level in the opening matches I was nevertheless nervous for that match, and then the following match against Kerber.  I needn’t have been stressed about it as Kasatkina rose to the occasion, dominating two of the tour’s elite players.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Indian Wells Halep Q1 10 3 27
  Pliskova Q2 3 7 -3
  Kasatkina Q4 3 11 30
Overall       54

Miami 1000/Premier Man

Screen Shot 2018-04-10 at 14.49.00

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Miami 1000 Sock Q1 3 7.5 -3
Miami Prem M. Muguruza 3 15 -3
  Keys Q1 3 7.75 -3
  Muguruza Q2 3 4.2 -3
  Svitolina Q3 3 4 -3
  Wozniacki Q4 3 3.1 -3
Overall       -18

I didn’t read the tea leaves right in Miami.

In the ATP event, I thought Jack Sock could provide some value as he has a decent record in Masters events and I had hoped he was getting his feel back after a successful doubles outing alongside John Isner in Indian Wells.  The doubles success was cited by the doubles champion for providing the spark for his remarkable title run in Miami.  However, the inspired player was John Isner, and not Jack Sock.

I completely avoided the bottom half of the Miami men’s draw as I anticipated it to be a free for all, and ultimately this proved correct.  However, I couldn’t give an edge to one player over the other and wasn’t brave enough to chance a longer odds player.  Congratulations to Sean Calvert, who I believe tipped Isner at 100/1 in his Unibet blog.  Wow!  That was a great bet, and one that in retrospect looks a skilful pick.

On the WTA side of things Elina Svitolina gave the best run for my money.  She made the quarter finals where she fell to Jelena Ostapenko, who thoroughly deserved to conquer Svitolina, even if two tiebreaks was what ultimately separated the pair.

Madison Keys retired in the third round against Victoria Azarenka, rounding off a poor ‘Sunshine Swing’ for the 2017 US Open runner-up.  Keys did improve her form to a semi final appearance the following week in Charleston, but that is no use to me now.

Garbine Muguruza was the one player I felt was due a big week at a major event – even if her recent form had not been exceptional.  She was making all the right noises in the press, and after all it is her modus operandi to win something grand when it isn’t quite expected (see Wimbledon last year, after a weak attempt at defending the French Open.)  Muguruza had a shocker against eventual champion Sloane Stephens, who was solid over the fortnight but wasn’t required to do anything outstanding in that match as Muguruza misfired over and over again.

Caroline Wozniacki didn’t get out of the starting blocks losing a temperamental encounter with Monica Puig, who had all the crowd support in her late night match from ex-pat Puerto Ricans.  Wozniacki claimed she was shaken by spectator insults towards her family.  But… I’m not sure that was justification enough for her defeat.

All in all, a poor run of selections.  I can’t even say any were particularly unlucky.  On the positive, still way up for the season – even up for the Sunshine swing overall.  Now on to the clay.

Stuttgart Premier

Screen Shot 2018-04-28 at 09.49.11

Ostapenko fell to Karolina Pliskova in the quarter final.  Unfortunately, Ostapenko wasn’t able to break through the Pliskova serve with enough regularity.  The Czech performed very well behind her serve and she capitalised on the dips of Ostapenko, which are a feature of her risk taking approach.  A further factor may have been the inopportune ankle injury to Ostapenko at 2/2 in the final set.  Overall, it was a case of slow and steady wins the race.

It is never fun to update the table with red loss figures but unlike in Miami I feel my selections were smarter this week.  Avoiding the market favourites – Halep, Stephens, Svitolina and Muguruza was the right approach and Ostapenko was in theory the best alternative.

Furthermore, I suggested keeping an eye on Annett Kontaveit who started the tournament at long odds, and, at the time of writing, finds herself in the semi final against Karolina Pliskova.  I rate Kontaveit’s progression highly but I couldn’t pull the trigger on her outright because her game isn’t all there yet.  She has only held in over half her service games this week and has had so many ups and downs that Pliskova will surely be too steady for her – much like she was against Ostapenko.

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Stuttgart Ostapenko 3 13 -3
Overall       -3

Wimbledon ATP

http://blog.188bet.co.uk/wimbledon-mens-winner-2nd-15th-july-2018/ 

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Wimbledon M Cilic 2 8 -2
  Kyrgios 2 5.5 -2
Overall       -4

The two men selected fell as heavy favourites in their matches.  It was very hard to find any blogger/tipster/commentator not promoting Marin Cilic as a sensible pick to win Wimbledon this year.

Marin Cilic lost to Guido Pella in one of the biggest upsets of the tennis season so far. The Croatian had led by two sets to love prior to an overnight rain delay but somehow fell apart on the resumption of play to a solid enough player, but not one that you would think had any prospect of beating Cilic, except for on a major off-day.

Nick Kyrgios on the otherhand lost in typically Kyrgios fashion.  The temperamental Australian couldn’t find the necessary motivation to overcome Kei Nishikori.  Kyrgios is a fun player to watch and I’ve long thought that he has a Grand Slam title within him, but until there is obvious development in his fitness and mental application to the sport then he is best avoided.

 

Wimbledon WTA

http://blog.188bet.co.uk/wimbledon-womens-winner-2nd-15th-july-2018/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Wimbledon W Muguruza 2 8.5 -2
  Ka. Pliskova 2 15 -2
  Vandeweghe 2 16 -2
Overall       -6

I’m not a big fan of citing luck as a determining factor for the loss of one of my bets but with both Coco Vandeweghe and to a certain extent Karolina Pliskova I think fortune wasn’t on my side.

Garbine Muguruza didn’t last long in the tournament after being overwhelmed by an on fire Alison Van Uytvanck.  I doubt the Spaniard looked at the draw and thought there was a chance of her going out so early.  I certainly didn’t see it coming.

Coco Vandeweghe was given a bit of a run around by the skilful Katerina Siniakova.  The American fell chasing down one of Siniakova’s clever dink shots and picked up an injury that hampered her performance for the rest of the match.  Given the way the draw opened up in her quarter I imagine it was a frustrating blow for the grass loving Vandeweghe.

Karolina Pliskova was the highest ranked player in the draw at the start of the second week.  She had struggled her way through the tournament to that point but had seemingly conquered the biggest hurdles between her and the semifinal.  However, against Kiki Bertens, who has played well all tournament,  Pliskova didn’t appear in the best of health.  The Czech normally hides her emotions very well but her level seemed off from an early stage of the match and she was crutched over on several occasions to suggest something physically was not quite right.

 

Newport 250 ATP and Gstaad WTA International

Screen Shot 2018-07-23 at 12.31.22

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Newport ATP Ebden 3 8 -3
Johnson 3 5 12
Overall 9
Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
Gstaad WTA Sorribes Tormo 0.5 25 -0.5
Sorribes Tormo 2.5 15 -2.5
Barthel 1 16 -1
Overall -4

A €50 profit in the outrights this week isn’t bad.  I started my selections in Gstaad where prior to the tournament I had thought Marketa Vondrousova might be an attractive price, but she was quoted in some places at around 5/1 and I thought that was far too low.  The Czech is a youngster of great potential but is currently a volatile commodity.  She is at this moment a flat track bully, and when she is challenged it doesn’t take very much to throw her off course as Mandy Minella proved in the semifinals.

The three other players I liked after doing my research was Veronika Kudermetova,  Sara Sorribes Tormo and Mona Barthel.  Two of the three made the quarter final, but I only backed one of those – having not trusted Kudermetova’s consistency.  The Russian has an explosive game but so far she can only maintain it in bursts, and I didn’t think she was a realistic title winner.

Mona Barthel has a great record in WTA International events over recent seasons, scooping a couple of titles even when starting outside of the seeded positions.  I think she is dangerous and often well priced.  However, she had a meltdown against Evgeniya Rodina and handed the match on a plate to her opponent with a series of double faults and rash, unnecessary errors.

Sara Sorribes Tormo on the other hand plays quite a unique style.  She uses a lot of slices and she has some decent options on her ground strokes, which can be quite effective at altitude as the ball can land at various different heights on the opponent’s side of the net.  However, the Sorribes Tormo serve is very weak and is readily attackable.  The Spaniard started as favourite against Mandy Minella but within a couple of games the odds looked all wrong as Minella was able to attack the serve and also hit flat and deep, which didn’t allow Sorribes Tormo to dictate the rallies.

In Newport I backed Matthew Ebden to come through the soft bottom half of the draw at 7/1.  The Australian had a great grass season and was a finalist at Newport in 2017.  Ebden failed to get out of the starting blocks, losing handily to the far from imposing Tim Smyczek.

After Steve Johnson’s first round match I decided to put a stake in him to win the tournament – which he went on to do.  The American was the only top 50 player left in his half of the draw other than Adrian Mannarino who he has a dominant head to head record against.  Johnson was a convincing winner of the title, facing a string of opponents outside of the top 100.  Easy work for a guy who built his reputation as a flat track bully in the US College circuit.

 

US Open WTA

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2018/08/wta-us-open-outright-value-to-be-found-away-from-leading-lights/

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2018/08/us-open-argentine-could-fight-his-way-to-glory/

 

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
US Open W Kasatkina 2 34EW -2
Svitolina 2 21EW -2
S. Williams 3 5 -3
S. Williams 2 5.5 -2
Kvitova 2 15EW -2
Osaka 2 33 64
Overall 53

Wow, I honestly did not expect Naomi Osaka to win this tournament when she was drawn to meet Serena Williams in the final.  The Japanese looked in brilliant form from the first round of the tournament and I saw an opportunity to side with her after the second round.

The final was a farcical affair, with Serena Williams demonstrating disgusting behaviour that overshadowed the whole event.  Williams was rightly reprimanded several times by the chair umpire and was rightly punished for her outbursts.  All of that distracted from Osaka’s brilliant performance, as she thoroughly outplayed the player that had been her hero as a child.  It was heartbreaking to watch the New York crowd boo the presentation ceremony.  Osaka did nothing wrong and is a deserving champion but she was overshadowed by Williams brattish behaviour.

The other outrights didn’t go so well – but to be honest I don’t care.  The 33/1 makes it all worthwhile!

Kasatkina was first to fall.  Her form was poor from the start, and although she survived Time Babos she was put out of her misery by Aliaksandra Sasnovich in Round 2.

Next to go was Petra Kvitova, who I chanced at the same moment as Osaka.  Kvitova was outhit by Aryna Sabalenka.  Thankfully Sabalenka was defeated by Osaka, in what was the biggest challenge faced by the eventual champion.

The final candidate that I backed was Elina Svitolina.  I knew as soon as I selected her that it was an awful pick.  She is not an elite player.

US Open ATP

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2018/08/atp-us-open-predictable-slam-to-ensue-at-flushing-meadows/

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2018/08/us-open-argentine-could-fight-his-way-to-glory/

Event Player Backed Point Stake Odds Return
US Open M Nadal 3 4 -3
Del Potro 1 14 -1
Overall -4

I’ve had a small delay in summarising this event as I’ve been enjoying Iceland for the past couple of weeks and have only returned to my desk in the last couple of days.

The day before I departed I watched a fairly one sided Men’s final between Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro.  I felt that this tournament likely presented del Potro with the biggest opportunity that he may have over the rest of his career to add a second Grand Slam title to his trophy cabinet.  However, unsurprisingly the event was won by one of the Big 3 – who have absolutely dominated men’s tennis for well over a decade.

Of the Big 3, I sided with  Nadal at the start of the tournament but after watching him early on I felt that he was an unlikely champion given that he was looked well off his usual physical standard.

I then chose to back the correct alternative from the top half in del Potro, but for that bet to win it would have needed del Potro to not face off against Djokovic in the final, or for a very special performance from the Argentine that did not materialise.

Overall, the men’s outrights did not return profit for the US Open but the positions I took allowed me to side with solid positions in match betting so I am pleased with how the US Open fortnight went on the men’s side.

Updated 25th September 2018  

Staked = 89 Units.  P/L = +113.9 Units

 

 

 

 

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